25-year cash-flow planning

Solar Payback Calculator

Estimate when cumulative solar energy savings can recover your system cost instead of relying on a one-line cost divided by first-year savings shortcut.

$
Enter cost after any verified local incentives. No federal residential credit is subtracted automatically.
kWh/yr
¢/kWh
%/yr
%/yr
$
Year-one energy value$2,520
Modeled payback9.1 years
10-year net savings$2,733
25-year net savings$60,578
20-year net savings$38,873
Model horizon25 years
Rate escalation2.5%/yr
Panel degradation0.4%/yr

This model accumulates annual energy value year by year, increasing the electricity rate and reducing solar output using your assumptions. It does not model loan interest, taxes, time-of-use intervals, export-rate differences, inverter replacement or the time value of money. Use it as a transparent planning model, not a financial guarantee.

50-state benchmark

Compare solar payback by state first

Before personalizing the assumptions, see how the same standardized 8 kW benchmark changes across all 50 states using current solar pricing, residential electricity rates and planning solar yield.

Open Solar Payback by State →

Which system cost should you enter?

Use the amount you actually expect to pay for solar after incentives you have verified for your project. For a 2026 residential project, Home Solar Atlas does not automatically reduce cost by the old 30% Section 25D federal residential credit.

If you still need a system-size or production estimate, start with the Home Solar Calculator. For a market benchmark, compare the state solar hubs and Real Solar Prices.

Why actual payback can differ

  • Solar production varies by roof orientation, shading, weather, soiling and system losses.
  • Utility tariffs can value self-consumed and exported electricity differently.
  • Financing can add interest or dealer fees that are not represented by a cash project cost.
  • Equipment replacement, maintenance and home-sale timing can change long-term economics.
  • Electricity-price escalation is uncertain, so it remains an editable assumption.